預測二：中國老年人口 (65歲及以上) 撫養比變化 (2000-2025)

注: 撫養比指每100名勞動年齡人口要負擔的老年人口數。

Directions: Write an essay based on the chart below. In your essay, you should

1) describe and interpret the chart,

2) and give your comments.

Write your answer in about 150 words.

參考范文：

The chart vividly illustrates the significant change in the elderly dependency ratio in China from 2000 to 2020, with a projection for 2025. The ratio, which indicates the number of elderly people per 100 working-age individuals, stood at 11.9 in 2000. It then climbed steadily to 19.7 in 2010 and further to 25 in 2020. This upward trend is expected to continue, reaching 30 by 2025.

Two key factors contribute to this trend. On the one hand, it is a direct consequence of the declining birth rates and the previously implemented one-child policy, which have led to a smaller working-age population. On the other hand, significant advancements in healthcare and living standards have resulted in increased life expectancy, expanding the elderly population. This creates a double pressure on the social welfare and healthcare systems.

In conclusion, the soaring elderly dependency ratio presents a great challenge to sustainable economic and social development. It is imperative for the government to implement comprehensive strategies, including encouraging higher birth rates and improving the pension system, to address the implications of an aging society effectively.

譯文：

該圖表清晰地揭示了中國老年撫養比從2000年到2020年的顯著變化，并對2025年作出預測。該比率指的是每100名勞動年齡人口需要撫養的老年人口數量，在2000年為11.9，隨后穩步上升至2010年的19.7，并在2020年達到25。這一上升趨勢預計將持續，到2025年將達到30。

兩個關鍵因素共同推動了這一趨勢。一方面，出生率下降及先前實施的獨生子女政策直接導致了勞動年齡人口規模縮減。另一方面，醫療水平與生活標準的顯著提升帶來人均壽命延長，使得老年人口規模持續擴大。這對社會福利和醫療體系構成了雙重壓力。

總之，持續攀升的老年撫養比對經濟社會可持續發展構成巨大挑戰。政府亟需實施包括鼓勵生育和完善養老體系在內的綜合策略，以有效應對老齡化社會帶來的各種影響。

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